Sunday, July 5, 2009

1/2 of the season is over - 81 game evaluation

With game number 81 in the books, it is time to evaluate our beloved first place Detroit Tigers and make some predictions on the second half.

All Stars:
The Detroit Tigers will send Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson and Curtis Granderson to St Louis for the All Star game on July 14. Brandon Inge is one of the 5 finalists for the last spot on the team that is voted on by the fans. Go to MLB.com and vote for Brandon today. Vote Inge, vote often.


Team stats:
Record - 44-37 (Home - 23-11, Away - 21-26)
Runs scored - 385. Number is far too low.
Runs allowed - 369. Far too high.
Run differential of +16 is better than only 6 other AL teams.
Team ERA - 4.20
Total wins by 5 opening day starters (JV, EJ, RP, AG and Zach) - 32.

Individual stats:
Brandon Inge had a HUGE first half with 19 HR and 52 RBI.
Miguel cooled off after a really fast start, but is still hitting .323 and has 16 HR and 47 RBI.
Carlos Guillen hardly played or contributed anything this season yet.
Magglio is hitting .266 and Placido is hitting .255.
Carlos, Mags and Placido have been a huge part of the Tigers success since they arrived in town and they need to get things turned around.
Curtis has also had a huge first half with 18 HR, 43 RBI, 15 steals and 51 runs scored.
Edwin has the 5th best ERA in the American League with 2.59.

Grades for first half:
Starting pitching: B+. Top 3 get an A, Armando gets a C and the 5th spot gets an F.
Bullpen: B
Offense: D. Has been really bad and extremely inconsistent.
Defense: B. Improved a lot from last year and even within the season, but not good enough. Still too many mistakes.
Results: A-. First place after 81 games is nothing to sneeze at, but their record should be better and they are not doing well enough against the AL elite.

Predictions:

Tigers are buyers at the trading deadline and acquire one bat and one arm. They probably trade away one or two major leaguers and some prospects to get major league players for a second half push towards a division title.

Second half record of 46-35 for a final record of 90-72.

90 wins is just barely enough for the Tigers to win the AL Central by 1 or 2 games. Twins finish in second.

Other divisional winners will be Boston and LA Angels.

Wildcard winner will be Tampa Bay Rays.

Playoff success is based on pitching matchups, so it is hard to predict playoff results without knowing who, where and when they would be playing. However, I will go ahead and guess that they would beat any of those teams in the ALDS, but lose the ALCS. The top of their rotation is as good as anybody, so a short series will favor the Tigs.

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