Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Enough about Sheffield's contract

After a full day of listening to sports radio and reading a few blogs, I have to say the following with passion:

I do not care about the 14 million dollars that they have to pay Sheffield to not play!

There, I said it. This was a good baseball decision. They are a better team today than they were yesterday and I do not give one little iota about the money. Why should I? There is no salary cap in baseball and Illich will not raise ticket prices this year (I already have my tickets anyway).

DD, Leyland and crew should be making decisions 100% based on what makes them a better team and zero percent based on money. This decision confirms that they agree with this notion and that makes me feel good about the brain trust of this organization.

Sheffield used to be a feared power hitter. Now, he is just a decoy who will occasionally hit one out. Not often enough to justify a place in the lineup everyday. If Marcus Thames gets the AB's that Sheffield would have gotten, he'll hit 30-35 HR where Sheffield would have hit 15-20. If Carlos Guillen gets a lot of starts at DH instead of LF, then he might play 130 games instead of 110 games.

They are a better team because of this move!

Tigers release Sheffield!!!

The Tigers released underachieving DH Gary Sheffield today when he is just 1 HR shy of historic number 500.

I believe that his shows Tigers management does not care about the attention that will come with #500. I think this shines a good light on DD and the skipper.

What does it mean for the lineup?

Will Marcus be the everyday DH?
Will Carlos be the DH and newly acquired outfielder Josh Anderson play everyday in LF?

More to come....

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

2006 versus 2009: The Outfield

Left Field: Monroe versus Guillen

Craig's numbers for 2006: 28 HR, 92 RBI, .255 BA, .301 OBP. These were career numbers for him that he will never match again.Career averages for Carlos: 15 HR, 82 RBI, .290 BA, .360 OBP.

Another big stat from 2006 is that Craig played 147 games. There is NO WAY that Carlos Guillen's body will hold up long enough to match that. He will play probably 110-120 games.

Advantage: 2006


Center Field: Granderson versus Granderson

Curtis continues to improve and cut-down on his strikeouts. He had 174 SO's in 2006, 141 in 2007 and 111 in 2008. This is a very positive trend for a great young player. Curtis is and should be the face of the franchise. He is outstanding defensively and good offensively.

Advantage: 2009



Right Field: Ordonez versus Ordonez

Magglio is hard to judge. His 2006 numbers were: 24 HR, 104 RBI and .298 BA. He is a career .312 hitter and that .298 number is probably his basement. Magglio is a pure hitter and when he is smoking it to the right-center gap, he is unstoppable. I expect him to have another year in the neighborhood of .320 with 100 RBI. He will not have as many RBI opportunities hitting out of the three hole, but with Granderson and Polanco ahead of him, he'll have plenty of shots and he will do what is expected.

Advantage: 2009


Overall, I would give the edge to 2009 because Curtis will be better than he was in 2006 and Magglio will put up better numbers than he did in 2006. However, there will be a huge dropoff in both defensive prowess and the offensive production in left field. Carlos will not play all year and his numbers will not match what Craig did that fantastic year.

Saturday, March 14, 2009

2006 v 2009: The Infield

Lets go position by position and compare 2006 roster with 2009 roster. We'll take the regular players at each position in 2006 versus the projected everyday players for 2009. Of course for this season, it could change quickly. At this time last year, we assumed that Jaques Jones would be the everyday left fielder, but he couldn't hit and couldn't play defense.


First base: Chris Shelton versus Miguel Cabrera

Defensively, Shelton probably gets an edge but I'll bet by the end of this year Cabrera is considered above average defensively. This will be Miguel's first full season at 1B so he gets a little bit of slack. Offensively this is a mismatch. Cabrera puts up MVP numbers and Shelton was awesome for one month his entire career. When they picked up Sean Casey at the trading deadline in 2006, the defense was very very good at this position but the offense still did not compare to Miguel.

Advantage: 2009

Second base: Polanco versus Polanco

I have to believe that the 2009 Placido is not at the same level as the 2006 version. I was very concerned about him consistently trying to pull the ball too much in '08. I would like to see him get about 3 singles to right field on opening day, that would make me feel a lot better. If he flies out to left, I will be groaning. Defensively, he slipped last year and he is 3 years older now.

Advantage: 2006

Third base: Inge versus Inge

There is no way Brandon will EVER be able to match, let alone surpass, his offensive numbers from 2006 (27 HR, 83 RBI, .253 BA). He is a lifetime .237 hitter (including his pathetic .205 in '08) so he has to show power to be valuable offensively. His defense will be stellar, but his offense will leave something to be desired.

Advantage: 2006

Shortstop: Guillen versus Everett

Offensively, this is a overwhelming advantage to Carlos. It is an equal mismatch to Everett defensively. Intangibles (leadership, clutch hits) make the deference.

Advantage: 2006

Catcher: Pudge versus Laird

Defensively, it is close but you have to give the nod to Pudge because people were scared to run on him. Laird is very good behind the plate and will cut guys down, but he doesn't strike fear the way the future Hall of Famer did. Offensively, even though he cannot take (or hit) a high strike to save his life, Pudge is clearly superior.

Advantage: 2006

Overall, the 2006 infield looks vastly better than the 2009 version. I hope I am wrong. I hope that Brandon can recapture some of his 2006 magic. I hope Adam is a better hitter than we expect. I hope these guys play defense the way we expect and hit better than expected.

Outfield will be next, then the pitchers and the bench.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

2006 versus 2009 opening day rosters

Remember 2006? Remember what a magical season that was for us Tigers fans? It seems like so long ago when our team was the surprising upstarts that everybody expected to stop winning anytime.

With each passing month from the end of the 2006 World Series, that team becomes less and less like the team we currently have. Gone are Monroe, Casey, Pudge and many others. Just look at that little picture I have with the team waiting to congratulate Magglio after the walk-off HR to finish off the ALCS. Count the players they still have on the team and it is a small count. Lets take a look and compare that team with our current team.

2006 Starting Lineup on opening day

Granderson
Polanco
Pudge
Ordonez
D.Young
Shelton
Guillen
Monroe
Inge

That's right, Pudge hit in the 3 hole and Dmitri Young hit 5th - ahead of Guillen. These sound crazy now, but this was the start of something great, so it is hard to criticize Leyland in hindsight.

Rotation

Kenny Rogers
Jeremy Bonderman
Nate Robertson
Mike Maroth
Justin Verlander

Verlander was the 5th starter!!! He was unproven at this point and was at the bottom of the rotation. All these guys had good years, especially Kenny and Justin. They were outstanding. Total number of wins from these 5 starters in 2006: 66 (plus 7 from Miner). If we get anywhere near that in 2009, we'll be doing great.

Key call-up: Zach Miner
Key acquisition: Sean Casey

2009 (projected) Starting Lineup on opening day

Granderson
Polanco
Ordonez
Cabrera
Guillen
Sheffield
Inge
Laird
Everett

Rotation
Justin Verlander
Jeremy Bonderman
Edwin Jackson
Armando Galarraga

#5 ??? [Miner/Willis/Robertson/Porcello]


I'll analyze the changes position by position in a future post.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Today's game

All that matters in today's exhibition game is Verlander v Sabathia. The Tigers lineup is a shell of what it will be during the season with all of the players in the WBC. However, Justin is on the mound, therefore I am interested. Plus, CC is on the other side.

I expect Sabathia to have a 'back down to earth' kind of a season. He is back in the AL and he will get hit around some, but will also be successful sometimes. He was unworldly last year with the Brewers and it was fun for all to see (except other NL Central fans). He will not be that guy again in 2009 against AL hitting and with a fat contract already in his back pocket. He is a Yankee now...he will not live up to expectations.

Update: Verlander gave up 2 hits and 2 earned runs in the top of the first. Not a good start.
Update 2: Verlander's final line: 2 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 2 ER.
Update 3: Sheffield goes deep and the Tigers take a 6-4 lead.
Update 4: Sheffield goes deep AGAIN. Is this a good sign or a tease? Can he do it in a cold Michigan April?
Update 5: Final is Tigers 7, Yankees 4

Sheffield hits 2 HR and has 3 RBI
Polanco has 1 RBI without a hit

The other thing that sticks out at me from the box score is Rodney's line.

1 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 0 R

Without seeing him pitch, it is hard to know how much he struggled but 2 hits and 1 walk is not good for him. I want to see his BB count at ZERO. I hate it when late relievers come in and walk guys. HATE IT.

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Does Miner belong in the minors?

I had thought for a long time that the 2005 trade of Karl Farnsworth to Atlanta for Zach Miner & Ramon Colon was one of the best (but not the very best) trades that Dombrowski had made since becoming GM of our Tigers. Now, I am beginning to wonder if Miner will ever do anything again. Will he ever be good enough and consistent enough to be a 5th starter in the majors? I have my doubts.



When Mike Maroth went down in 2006, Miner did a stellar job of stepping into the role given to him. He took advantage of the opportunity and did well. Not great. Not as great as we might want to think. 2006 was a magical season and we all tend to romanticize it a bit too much. Everything was not perfect. They did blow a huge division lead and lost the division on the last day of the regular season. The second half was not great by any stretch. They were outstanding in the playoffs (until the WS) and that is what we remember, but it wasn't all peaches and cream.



My wife (then my girlfriend) went to a game near the end of the 2006 season, one of those last 3 games against KC where had we won any one of them, we would have clinched the division title. We went on a Saturday evening. Waited through an hour or so rain delay, but finally got to see baseball. Practically before we knew the game started, before some people were in their seats...Miner had surrendered 5 runs in 1/3 inning of work. It was bad. Very frustrating. Game over very early.



Zach is being given the opportunity to fight for the 5th spot in the rotation for 2009, but I would be shocked - SHOCKED - if he got it. I would be even more shocked if he kept the spot. I am rooting for him and hope he can get guys out, but he doesn't throw particularly hard and when he cannot locate his sinker, it is batting practice.

His line on Tuesday: 3 IP, 7 H, 3 ER. Just simply not good enough.


I hope I am wrong about young Mr Miner. Time will tell.

First post

OK, folks. This is the beginning.

I am an avid Tigers fan and this will be my first season watching nightly in HD. I bought a 50" Visio HDTV in late November after my wife and I moved into our new house. I love the TV, and love watching almost anything in HD. I think the HD difference is more evident with sporting events, but even normal programming is better.

I purchased tickets to 6 Tigers games this past Saturday morning at 10am when they went on sale. First game of the year I will be attending is April 13, 2009. Can't wait!


My lineup:

Granderson
Polanco
Mags
Cabrera
Guillen
Sheffield
Laird
Inge
Everett

PH: Thames

Rotation:

Verlander
Galarraga
Bonderman
Jackson

#5 starter is up in the air. Willis? Robertson? Porcello?

I think Porcello is a long shot, even though he pitched well the other day. I'll bet he starts the year in AAA or AA. If anybody falters, he'll be with the team before the weather breaks.

The season hinges on the rotation and the bullpen. If Zumaya is healthy and effective, it will make a huge difference. Also, if the closer role is in good hands with Lyon. These are the big question marks. #5 starter is important, but the rotation and the pen will make the difference. The offense will score tons of runs and the defense will be solid.

27 days until the opener in Toronto. 31 days until the home opener!