Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Happy September and Happy Pennent Race

September 1, 2009. 5pm Eastern Time.

Record 69-61
First place, AL Central
3.5 games ahead of Minnesota
130 games down, 32 games to go
Magic number for a playoff birth (AL Central crown): 29

After taking a long hiatus from writing about all the games, I am committed to finishing the season strong along with my Tigers. I plan to watch every inning, every pitch that I can (i.e. that my wife allows - ha ha. just kidding. not really. really. not really).

In my mid-season predictions for the second half, I made these bold predictions:

Tigers are buyers at the trading deadline and acquire one bat and one arm.
NOTE: Correct!!!! Aubrey Huff and Jarrod Washburn.

Second half record of 46-35 for a final record of 90-72.
NOTE: Current second half record is 25-23. Not looking likely that they'll win 90.

90 wins is just barely enough for the Tigers to win the AL Central by 1 or 2 games. Twins finish in second.
NOTE: Twins are in second and it looks like it could go down to the wire.

Other divisional winners will be Boston and LA Angels.
NOTE: Boson will not likely win the AL East, but Angels will probably win the West.

Wildcard winner will be Tampa Bay Rays.
NOTE: Still possible, but not likely. I expect Boston wins the WC, although Tampa and Texas are still in the mix.

I think the Tigers are the best team in a weak AL Central and should win the division. The Twins scare the crap out of me because they always seem to win in the head-to-head games (esp at the Metrodome). They are still too close for comfort. I think, ultimately, the Tigers starting pitching is just too good for the other divisional teams. Justin, Edwin, Rick are a great top 3. If Jarrod can turn the clock back to his before-the-trade self, then it'll be even better. Nate and Armando have both shown promise for the 5th spot, which will be an important position down the stretch if the Twins keep it close.

Bottom line, I am optimistic but nervous about the Tigers postseason chances.

Tonights game: First of 3 against the ugly Indians. EJ pitches at Comerica for the good guys. Would love to see a few early runs and Edwin get a 6-0 or 6-1 win.

Saturday, July 25, 2009

Game 95: Record 51-44

Boy is it nice to sweep a double header, especially against the White Sox

JV pitched is butt off in the day game on Friday and Eddie Bonine pitched very well in a no decision Friday evening. The bullpen was the big story in the evning game with 3 complete inning pitched, allowing only 1 hit and 1 walk. Brandon Lyon got the win and Fernando picked up save #21.

Tigers are now 2 games free of the White Sox with 2 more to play against them this weekend. EJ pitches Saturday and RP on Sunday. If they can win 1 or perhaps both of these games, things will look really good.

Friday, July 24, 2009

Game 94: Record 50-44

JV comes through when needed most!

Justin was simply oustanding in a complete game, 127 pitch performance to help the Tigers win the first of two today. He only allowed 6 hits and 1 unearned run.

Plus, the offense finally scored more than 1 run. They smacked 10 hits and 5 runs against the White Sox.

Make no mistake. This was a game they needed to win and they did. Good job.

Another game tonight as Eddie Bonine makes his first start of 2009.

Games 89-93: Record 49-44

How can a single team...any team...have four 2-1 losses in a span of five games???

Is this even possible? Even legal? In the 6 games since the All Star break, The Tigers have scored the following runs: 3, 1, 1, 9, 1, 1. Record in that span: 1-5 with the only win being the only game they scored over 3 runs. Suffice to say...actually a major understatement to say that the pitching has been solid-to-outstanding and the offense has been bad-to-horrible-to-embarrassingly pathetic.

Does not matter who pitches, they have all been dealing good stuff. Does not matter the lineup that Leyland cobbles together, they have all sucked at the plate lately. They are now .001 percentage point ahead of the White Sox. They start a 4 game series against that team beginning with a double header today. JV pitches the opener, which they must win. Eddie Bonine pitches the nightcap.

Huge series? Yes. But, what they do in terms of shoring up the lineup and offense is more important than these four games. Even if they got swept, they would only be 4 games out and if they could get Matt Holliday or some other corner outfielder who can hit, I would still like their chances of winning the AL Central.

Saturday, July 18, 2009

Game 88: Record 48-40

Zoom, zoom, there goes another win.

Joel Zumaya let another one get away Friday night after Luke French pitched really well again. French only gave up 1 earned run in 5 strong innings and then Fu-Te Ni pitched 1 scoreless inning, so the Tigers led 3-2 heading into the 7th when Zumaya took over.

Joel promptly allowed a single, then a double and finally a 3 run HR to Mark Teixeira. He rightly took the loss. Very frustrating for all Tigers fans. With Justin and Edwin pitching the next two in New York, it would have been outstanding to win that game with the youngster starting. But, the bullpen blew another one. They gotta get these next two.

Sunday, July 12, 2009

Games 85-87: Record 48-39

Tigers take 2 of 3 against the Indians and head into the break in first place by 3.5 games!

All-stars Edwin and Justin beat Cleveland while Aramando's good performance is not good enough. EJ pitched outstanding on Friday as he got his 7th win, then AG pitched 6 strong innings but got the loss on Saturday. The series ended with a dominating performance by JV, who pitched 7 complete innings of shutout ball. He is clearly the ace of this staff and clearly a deserving 2009 American League All Star.

The lines:

EJ on Friday 7/10: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 SO
AG on Saturday 7/11: 6.0 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 SO
JV on Sunday 7/12: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 8 SO

Really good pitching all the way around. They are set up for a good second half and a strong run at the AL Central crown.

They now get 4 days off. They start the 2nd half in New York against the evil empire. Time to relax, enjoy watching the All Star game.

Friday, July 10, 2009

Game 84: Record 46-38

French fries Greinke

Luke French, in his second career start, beat 2009 All-Star (and likely AL Starter) Zack Greinke. As I said yesterday, this was a mismatch on paper but luckily they do not play the game on paper.

The Tigers got 3 runs early against Greinke and that was all they needed because of the steller pitching that French, Ni, Lyon and Rodney provided. Really good pitching. And a series win when they needed it...after 3 straight series where they lost 2 of 3.

They now have three games against the Indians to complete the first half of the season and head into the All Star game. EJ goes first, then AG and finally JV pitches on Sunday.

Four Tigers will be competing in the mid summer classic - Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson, Curtis Granderson and Brandon Inge. With Justin pitching Sunday, I highly doubt that we see him pitch much if at all on Tuesday. If he enters at all, it'll be 1 inning maximum or else Leyland and Tigers fans will kill Joe Madden.

Brandon won the fan voting to fill the last spot on the AL roster. I voted probably 200 times and am really happy for him to make it.

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Game 83: Record 45-38

Good complete team win when they needed it

After giving away Friday's game and facing Greinke Wednesday, Tuesday's game with JV on the mound became a critical game that the Tigers needed to win. And they got it.

Justin pitched 6 strong innings, striking out 11 along the way. Unfortunately, once again, Justin just simply threw too many pitches. 114 pitches in 6 innings is too many. The amazing thing about this game is that he didn't walk anybody and still threw that many pitches. One of these days, JV is going to be pitching a 1 hitter or a no hitter or a perfect game and will not be able to complete it because he'll have thrown 130 pitches in the 7th inning.

Nice to see the offense come alive. Miguel with a solo HR that, in part, helped setup Marcus's three run HR in the big 5th inning. KC intentionally walked Miguel and then Marcus made them pay big time. This is what protection can do for you. If Leyland puts Marcus in the 4 hole again today, they'll think twice about walking Miguel. Placido also went deep, but this concerns me because he is still just hitting .262 and is pulling the ball way too much for him.

One quick note on defense. Leyland, in this game, put Josh Anderson in as a defensive replacement for Magglio in the 8th inning. Had he done that Friday, they would have had a better shot at winning because the leadoff man in the 8th would not have gotten on and would not have scored the tying run. Glad to see that he learned something.

Rubber game in the series with Zack Greinke against youngster Luke French. On paper, this could be ugly. But they play the game on grass, not paper. I am hoping for some patient at bats, some hits, some walks. Get Greinke out of the game by the 6th or 7th and win it in the late innings. French just needs to keep them in it, he doesn't need to win it.

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Game 82: Record 44-38

Absolutely disgustingly frustrating loss

This game, more than any other so far this season has highlighted the differences between the 2006 and 2009 Detroit Tigers.

In 2006, Magglio Ordonez was a decent fielder with a strong arm.
In 2006, Joel Zumaya & Fernando Rodney were lights-out 99% of the time.

On July 6, 2009 Magglio has a "hit" fall two steps in front of him to the leadoff hitter of the 8th inning with the Tigers nursing a 2-1 lead. That run, of course, scored to tie the game. In 2006, Magglio makes that catch. In 2009 he doesn't even make an effort ... cannot make the play. Any other defensive replacement in the 8th (Kelly, Anderson, Raburn) make that play.

On July 6, 2009 Joel enters the game in the 8th with a 2-1 lead. He gives up 2 runs and the Royals take a 3-2 lead. Tigers then tie it in the bottom of the 8th.

On July 6, 2009 Fernando enters in the 9th with the score tied and gives up a solo moon shot and they lose 4-3.

This was a game they gave away after an outstanding performance by Armando. His line was impressive:

7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 SO. They need this out of him, especially with RP starting to show some rookie wear and tear.

Adam Everett continues to ... uhh.... NOT be my Tiger. Grounding into a DP with the bases loaded and 1 out, misplays in the field with the occassional nice play that he is supposed to make. I am just not a fan of his.

Sunday, July 5, 2009

1/2 of the season is over - 81 game evaluation

With game number 81 in the books, it is time to evaluate our beloved first place Detroit Tigers and make some predictions on the second half.

All Stars:
The Detroit Tigers will send Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson and Curtis Granderson to St Louis for the All Star game on July 14. Brandon Inge is one of the 5 finalists for the last spot on the team that is voted on by the fans. Go to MLB.com and vote for Brandon today. Vote Inge, vote often.


Team stats:
Record - 44-37 (Home - 23-11, Away - 21-26)
Runs scored - 385. Number is far too low.
Runs allowed - 369. Far too high.
Run differential of +16 is better than only 6 other AL teams.
Team ERA - 4.20
Total wins by 5 opening day starters (JV, EJ, RP, AG and Zach) - 32.

Individual stats:
Brandon Inge had a HUGE first half with 19 HR and 52 RBI.
Miguel cooled off after a really fast start, but is still hitting .323 and has 16 HR and 47 RBI.
Carlos Guillen hardly played or contributed anything this season yet.
Magglio is hitting .266 and Placido is hitting .255.
Carlos, Mags and Placido have been a huge part of the Tigers success since they arrived in town and they need to get things turned around.
Curtis has also had a huge first half with 18 HR, 43 RBI, 15 steals and 51 runs scored.
Edwin has the 5th best ERA in the American League with 2.59.

Grades for first half:
Starting pitching: B+. Top 3 get an A, Armando gets a C and the 5th spot gets an F.
Bullpen: B
Offense: D. Has been really bad and extremely inconsistent.
Defense: B. Improved a lot from last year and even within the season, but not good enough. Still too many mistakes.
Results: A-. First place after 81 games is nothing to sneeze at, but their record should be better and they are not doing well enough against the AL elite.

Predictions:

Tigers are buyers at the trading deadline and acquire one bat and one arm. They probably trade away one or two major leaguers and some prospects to get major league players for a second half push towards a division title.

Second half record of 46-35 for a final record of 90-72.

90 wins is just barely enough for the Tigers to win the AL Central by 1 or 2 games. Twins finish in second.

Other divisional winners will be Boston and LA Angels.

Wildcard winner will be Tampa Bay Rays.

Playoff success is based on pitching matchups, so it is hard to predict playoff results without knowing who, where and when they would be playing. However, I will go ahead and guess that they would beat any of those teams in the ALDS, but lose the ALCS. The top of their rotation is as good as anybody, so a short series will favor the Tigs.